DOE, ISO-NE Discuss Response to Extreme Winter Weather
By Jon Lamson, RTO Insider
From the 32nd floor of a skyscraper overlooking downtown Boston, U.S. Deputy Energy Secretary James Danly presented a public service award to Captain Clint Walker, whom he called “the guy who saved New England.”
During an extended stretch of extreme cold weather over the past winter, Walker helped prevent blackouts by delivering fuel oil by tanker to the Canal Generating Station, which hadn’t been refueled by boat for more than a decade, Danly said.
“The only one of the pilots available who actually had the experience to do this was, in fact, the man standing to my right,” he said.
The ship, he added, had to be partially unloaded and guided by tugboats to successfully navigate through the canal, requiring coordination among the Army Corps of Engineers, the Coast Guard, state government and the generation owner.
This theme of cooperation has been repeated often in the wake of the 19-day cold snap that hit New England from Jan. 23 to Feb. 10, during which temperatures averaged more than 11 degrees Fahrenheit below normal. The cold weather resulted in a dramatic increase in oil generation and the most expensive winter in the history of ISO-NE’s wholesale markets. (See 2025/26 Most Expensive Winter in History of ISO-NE Markets.)
Amid far warmer temperatures at a business association luncheon held on June 29, Danly and others recounted their efforts to keep the grid running during the cold snap.
ISO-NE CEO Vamsi Chadalavada called the event “a real wake-up moment on the power of communication and what happens when we work as a team. … It’s no secret that I had more calls with Secretary Danly and [New England Power Generators Association President] Dan [Dolan] in those two weeks than I had with my family.”
Chadalavada said the oil inventory levels for the region’s older oil units reached as low as 8% during the event.
“8% in a time where you’re using 4% to 5% a day leaves you with literally a day and a half left of fuel,” he said. “So it becomes mission critical that that resupply happens.”
Cumulative fuel inventories for New England generators dropped to about 20% of total capacity, the lowest recorded level since ISO-NE began tracking inventories.
Generators also had to navigate demineralized water shortages, Dolan said.
To address the issue, “there was an open line to the highest levels of the federal government,” he said. “Without peeling the curtain back too much, at one point, Vamsi and I got on the phone, Deputy Secretary Danly got on the phone, and about 30 minutes later, magically, the demineralized water deliveries all got scheduled, and everybody was able to continue operating.”
Danly touted the speed at which DOE issued emergency orders allowing generators to exceed emissions limits to operate at their maximum capabilities. While it previously typically took around five to seven days to issue emergency orders, “we got that time down to just about three hours,” he said.
He praised Chadalavada’s leadership. The ISO-NE CEO, who had been on the job for less than a month at the start of the event, was a “deliberate requester of assistance but also a very good councilor throughout the entire process.” (See ISO-NE CEO Chadalavada Talks Winter Operations, Market Reform.)
Resource and Supply Adequacy
Despite the successful collaboration on grid operations over the past winter, there continues to be significant friction between the energy policies of the Trump administration and the New England state governments.
There is very limited overlap “between the fuels and technologies that will satisfy Washington and the fuels and technologies that will satisfy Beacon Hill and Hartford and the other state capitals,” Dolan noted.
This has created “very little certainty” around policy and market durability for developers considering investments in capital-intensive projects in the region, he said. “We’re going to continue to be in the business of just trying to maximize every last ounce of steel on the ground today.”
New England average temperature departure from normal, Jan. 23 to Feb. 10 | NEPOOL
Chadalavada emphasized the need to retain as much of the region’s existing resource fleet as possible.
“The most cost-effective fleet is the one that we have,” he said. “We need to keep them up and running, which means they have to make some money — that means that profitability for that existing fleet is important, and our incentives in the market should be designed towards that.”
He added that, while it can be difficult to find the right balance of profitability, “that’s something we have to strive for.”
Danly took the opportunity to make the case for new pipeline infrastructure into the region, while downplaying the value of renewable resources.
“You’ve got plenty of generators — the problem is the fuel,” he said, pointing to the fuel oil supply chain challenges that have arisen amid extreme weather, as demonstrated by the refueling of the Canal Generating Station.
“This really is a supply chain problem that runs top to bottom, and it can be solved pretty easily with infrastructure development,” he added. “Part of the problem is that there have been some — let me finger wag here — some bad policies that have been implemented in New England.”
While there appears to have been increased interest from the New England governors in recent months in expanding pipeline capacity into the region, significant questions remain about how to finance this infrastructure.
Earlier in June, the Massachusetts Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs urged New England gas generators to participate in an open season held by Enbridge for an expansion of the Algonquin pipeline system. But in response, NEPGA reiterated concerns about the viability of entering into the long-term contracts needed to develop the infrastructure. (See New England Generators Skeptical About Pipeline Contracting.)
The region’s gas constraints, coupled with the recent struggles of its offshore wind industry, have created significant questions about how ISO-NE will meet demand growth over the coming decade.
Along with the financing challenges, the region still has a strong movement of environmental groups that oppose pipeline expansion efforts. Advocates argue pipeline expansion is not a prudent investment given the states’ decarbonization goals and mandates.
Asked during an interview following the event whether the Trump administration’s antagonism toward offshore wind has contributed to New England’s reliability challenges, Danly pointed to a period during the cold snap in which power from burning wood and trash exceeded generation from wind and solar.
“From my standpoint, the objective is to ensure you have the lowest reasonable cost and the highest reasonable reliability, and increasing the penetration of intermittents is typically not the way to achieve that,” Danly argued.
From left: Sarah Bresolin, ENGIE; Vamsi Chadalavada, ISO-NE; Dan Dolan, NEPGA; Bill Quinlan, Eversource; John O’Brien, JERA Americas | © RTO Insider
According to ISO-NE data, wind power accounted for about 4% of net energy during the 19-day stretch. The 704-MW Revolution Wind project had yet to deliver first power at the time of the storm, while the 806-MW Vineyard Wind project was roughly 70% operational at the time.
Construction on Revolution Wind was halted twice by the Trump administration, while the administration paused work on the Vineyard Wind project for about a month between late December and late January. These stop-work orders eventually were overturned in the courts. (See Vineyard Completes Construction, Revolution Starts Generation.)
Offshore wind’s capacity factor typically increases during the winter, and ISO-NE studies have indicated that it has substantial reliability benefits. ISO-NE has noted that expanded offshore wind production in the winter could significantly reduce reliance on stored fuels and allow generators to conserve fuel oil inventories. (See ISO-NE Warns Halting Revolution Wind Boosts Reliability Risk.)
Forecasting Challenges
Looking back on the cold snap, “the question that we keep asking is, what if this was a 23-day cold event? What if it was 25 days?” Chadalavada said. “That’s the difficulty of climate change: We’re experiencing events that are unplanned.”
Over the past 60 years, “maybe there were two instances of cold worse than what we had this year… but they were for shorter durations,” he added. “What we need to prepare for now is long-duration, extended cold snaps, which means the generation assets [and] the transmission assets have to perform at all times, and our margin for error is really tight.”
Chadalavada and Dolan both highlighted the benefits of ISO-NE’s 21-day energy forecasts, which use probabilistic modeling to predict system conditions on a rolling basis. The RTO produced such reports daily throughout the period of extreme weather in January and February.
ISO-NE relies on historical weather data and climate forecasts to evaluate extreme weather risks and conduct long-term studies. Weather modeling is an important aspect to ISO-NE’s proposed capacity accreditation reforms, which are intended to compensate resources based on their ability to reduce shortfall during extreme conditions.
As emissions from fossil fuels increase global temperatures, scientists predict extreme weather events to become more common, which could create significant challenges for grid operators.
According to a 2021 study funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Science Foundation, climate change exacerbates disruptions to the polar vortex, which can cause periods of extreme cold weather such as Winter Storm Uri in 2021.
But as ISO-NE has scaled up its forecasting and modeling capabilities, the Trump administration has pursued aggressive rollbacks of funding for climate and weather forecasting.
The administration has laid off hundreds of employees at NOAA. For 2027, it has proposed to cut NOAA’s budget by about $1.6 billion and eliminate the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research.
Layoffs have had a particularly large impact at the Boston office of the National Weather Service, which in 2025 saw its staff of meteorologists cut below the level needed to run around the clock, according to reporting by Fast Company.
Former NOAA Chief Scientist Craig McLean recently warned that NOAA funding cuts “have a ripple effect, showing up in less accurate local ocean and weather forecasts … less warning time for dangerous events, and higher costs for communities and businesses that depend on reliable environmental intelligence.”
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